Ocean Warming Is Accelerating Faster Than Thought, New Research Finds


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Scientists say the world’s oceans are warming way more rapidly than beforehand thought, a discovering with dire implications for local weather change as a result of nearly all the surplus warmth absorbed by the planet finally ends up saved of their waters.

A brand new evaluation, printed Thursday within the journal Science, discovered that the oceans are heating up 40 p.c sooner on common than a United Nations panel estimated 5 years in the past. The researchers additionally concluded that ocean temperatures have damaged data for a number of straight years.

“2018 is going to be the warmest year on record for the Earth’s oceans,” stated Zeke Hausfather, an power methods analyst on the impartial local weather analysis group Berkeley Earth and an creator of the examine. “As 2017 was the warmest year, and 2016 was the warmest year.”

As the planet has warmed, the oceans have supplied a crucial buffer. They have slowed the consequences of local weather change by absorbing 93 p.c of the warmth trapped by the greenhouse gases people pump into the ambiance.

But before Argo, researchers relied on temperature sensors that ships lowered into the ocean with a copper wire. The wire transferred data from the sensor to the ship for recording until the wire broke and the sensor drifted away.

That method was subject to uncertainties, especially around measurement depth, that hamper today’s scientists as they stitch together 20th-century temperature data into a global historical record.

In the new analysis, Mr. Hausfather and his colleagues assessed three recent studies that better accounted for the older instrument biases. The results converged at an estimate of ocean warming that was higher than the I.P.C.C. predicted and more in line with the climate models.

The researchers also reviewed a fourth study that had used a novel method to estimate ocean temperatures over time and had also found that the world’s oceans were heating faster than the I.P.C.C. prediction. But that study contained an error that caused its authors to revise their estimates downward, suggesting that ocean warming was less of a problem than they originally reported.

As it turned out, the downward revision brought that study’s estimates much closer to the new consensus. “The correction made it agree a lot better with the other new observational records,” Mr. Hausfather said. “Previously it showed significantly more warming than anyone, and that was potentially worrisome because it meant our observational estimates might be problematic. Now their best estimate is pretty much dead-on with the other three recent studies.”

The scientists who published the four studies were not trying to make their results align, Mr. Hausfather said. “The groups who were working on ocean heat observations, they’re not climate modelers,” he said. “They’re not particularly concerned with whether or not their observations agree or disagree with climate models.”

Laure Zanna, an associate professor of climate physics at the University of Oxford who was not involved in the study, said the new research was “a very nice summary of what we know of the ocean and how far the new estimates have come together.”



Source link Nytimes.com

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