House and Senate Latest, Big Poll for Democrats, Georgia Runoff: 1 Day to Go

Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democratic officials, pollsters, strategists and voters.

• Follow updates from around the country on Monday

• Lifted by overwhelming support among women, Democrats enjoy a 13-point advantage on the question of which party should control Congress, according to a new CNN poll.

The national survey indicates that 55 percent of voters prefer Democratic control of the House while 42 percent said they wanted Republicans to stay in power.

While men are effectively divided on the question, women are backing Democrats in large numbers: 62 percent of women said Democrats should take over Congress while just 35 percent prefer Republicans to retain their majorities.

The divide is clearly driven by views toward President Trump. Only 39 percent of voters approve of the president’s job performance, but among women it is even lower: just 31 percent of women believe Mr. Trump is doing a good job as president, while 63 percent do not approve of his performance.

• Think the 2018 campaign will be over after all the ballots from Tuesday are counted? Think again.

Some Republican officials now believe that the Georgia governor’s race is destined to go to a Dec. 4 runoff because neither Stacey Abrams, the Democrat, nor Brian Kemp, the Republican, is likely to capture a majority of the vote.

The race is that close in their private polling and, while Mr. Kemp enjoys a slight advantage in the G.O.P. surveys, the libertarian on the ballot, Ted Metz, could take about 2 percent of the vote. (In Georgia’s 2014 gubernatorial race, the Libertarian nominee earned 2.36 percent of the vote.)

That could keep either major candidate from reaching 50 percent on Election Day if the race remains neck-and-neck.

• The furor over the new inquiry by Mr. Kemp’s office of the Georgia Democratic Party threw a curveball into the final days of this tight race.

• Mr. Gillum sees things differently, telling reporters in Miami that he was “not at all” concerned.

“The hard part is a look at Democrat vs. Republican leaves over 800,000 of independents and no-party-affiliates,” he said. “We believe we’re leading in that category, and we also don’t believe that all Republicans who voted will be voting for Mr. DeSantis. We think we’ll get our fair share of it.”

Tom Malinowski is the Democratic candidate running against Representative Leonard Lance in New Jersey’s Seventh Congressional District.

But his campaign volunteers are creating headaches for Bob Hugin, the Republican candidate for Senate.

One of Mr. Malinowski’s volunteer organizers, Lacey Rzeszowski, lives on the same block as Mr. Hugin in Summit, N.J. On both days this weekend, her house served as the headquarters for canvassing efforts for Mr. Malinowski in the town. Hundreds of people streamed across her lawn and then out into the neighborhood in support of Mr. Malinowski.

On Saturday, the turnout was so overwhelming that the police temporarily shut down the block.

Mr. Malinowski shared the news with Mr. Hugin’s opponent, Senator Bob Menendez, at a Union County get-out-the-vote breakfast on Sunday morning, noting, “Senator Menendez will like this story.”

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