The high quality of journalism on this nation (with few exceptions that show the rule), continues to plummet. When it involves procuring centre points, it would appear there’s a race to the underside. Recently there have been claims that procuring centre foot traffic was considerably down. The reverse was true; however that doesn’t make for fascinating information…
Early final yr, a false declare was reported within the media claiming that procuring centre foot traffic was considerably down within the 2018 pre-Christmas buying and selling interval.
From our evaluation of each the declare and the media report, it got here right down to a false attribution of proprietary in-store foot traffic knowledge as being procuring centre knowledge, which clearly wasn’t fact-checked.
In addition, there with an related false declare that the proprietary device in query was ‘widely used by shopping centre landlords’.
To use a phrase of latest instances, it definitely appeared and felt like pretend information.
Sadly, such is the standard of debate in sure boards about retail and procuring centres, the falsehood was by no means formally corrected. As time went on, the pretend information changed into one thing of a truism in sure boards.
And, as anticipated, this led to the boring claims about tense landlord and tenant relationships and no matter else some teams like to think about when attempting to speak down our business.
This was additionally regardless of the actual fact in another media experiences on the identical knowledge, the information was appropriately attributed to be what it truly was: in-store knowledge.
To make clear, the declare that the in-store knowledge – no matter what the outcomes stated – was procuring centre knowledge was full nonsense. The false and deceptive nature of such a declare was exacerbated given we perceive that the information contains a restricted pattern of shops; is confined to sure retail classes and contains shops exterior of procuring centres.
In different phrases, it is not procuring centre knowledge.
We additionally examined the declare within the stated report that the device was ‘widely used by shopping centre landlords’.
We surveyed a number of of our members on the problem, and not one in every of them used the device as a part of their operations.
Given that the members we surveyed coated (on the time) greater than 60% of the nationwide market, it bolstered that any declare that the device is ‘widely used’ is totally false. Further, it couldn’t even be stated that a ‘majority’ used the proprietary device.
Given this set of points, the SCCA resolved to undertake our personal foot traffic evaluation over the November/December 2019 interval and evaluate it with the identical 2018 interval. We additionally dedicated to offering this evaluation to related key stakeholders in our business for his or her data and consciousness.
Our first process was to develop a consultant nationwide pattern to gather and analyse foot traffic knowledge, which we finally resolved to have a nationwide market protection of 20%, which in our information is a bigger pattern than any we might consider for different market or client samples or indices.
Our pattern additionally included centres in metropolitan, regional and rural areas to make sure geographic illustration. We additionally included giant (regional), medium (sub-regional), small (neighbourhood) and CBD centres to cowl completely different centre sorts. This additionally ensured a consultant protection throughout discretionary and non-discretionary retailers.
In addition, we ensured that the pattern included centres throughout all median family earnings ranges (as measured by the ABS), to make sure that there was a honest illustration of various demographics and communities.
Importantly, we additionally used stabilised centres to allow a like-for-like year-on-year comparability.
Noting the above, we additionally sought to make sure that the pattern wasn’t immediately similar to any member’s portfolio or might grow to be a quasi-market or business benchmark.
Overall, the pattern included greater than 90 procuring centres, which incorporates greater than 10,000 retail tenancies. The outcomes, which we launched in January and is on our web site, present an fascinating snapshot to say the least.
In specific, it’s because the outcomes deliver into query a number of the adverse, generic and deceptive claims that proceed to be made about procuring centre foot traffic.
Here are a number of the highlights:
• Overall, foot traffic increased by four.zero% in November 2019 in contrast with November 2018.
• Overall, foot traffic increased by 1.three% in December 2019 in contrast with December 2018.
• Foot traffic increased on Black Friday 2019 by 16.6%, and by eight.four% within the week of Black Friday.
• Foot traffic increased on Boxing Day 2019 by 7.eight% in contrast with Boxing Day 2018.
In addition, Boxing Day 2019 was larger than Black Friday in nominal phrases, with about 2.5 million folks visiting the sampled centres.
The prime 5 days have been as follows:
1. Monday 23 December
2. Tuesday 24 December, Christmas Eve
three. Thursday 19 December
four. Friday 20 December
5. Thursday 26 December, Boxing Day.
Black Friday was the seventh largest day throughout the 2019 interval.
In different phrases, throughout the November/December buying and selling interval, extra folks clearly ‘shop closer to Christmas’ with the highest 4 days being within the lead-up to Christmas Day (noting that Christmas Day is a non-trading day).
The cause we’ve got highlighted the end result for Boxing Day, together with the highest 5 days, was based mostly on no less than one media report which advised that Black Friday ‘killed’ Christmas retail buying and selling.
From our perspective, Black Friday is a part of Christmas buying and selling, and could possibly be seen as ‘kicking off’ Christmas buying and selling. So, regardless of any notion that it could possibly be ‘killing’ Christmas buying and selling, it as an alternative represents a shift in client and spending behaviour in what’s now being known as the pull-forward of spending into late November.
In any case, Black Friday definitely didn’t ‘kill’ retail buying and selling. December foot traffic was nonetheless strong.
We have offered the important thing outcomes of our foot traffic evaluation to a number of key stakeholders to easily inform them and lift consciousness of our evaluation, and to additionally spotlight our willingness to debate any points additional.
This group ranges from retail analysts, retailer teams (eg. the ARA, NRA and Pharmacy Guild), small enterprise commissioners, retail journalists and a few others.
To date, we’ve had a constructive response to our evaluation and our discussions proceed.
We will probably be giving consideration as as to whether we proceed this evaluation in the long run, together with the place such evaluation may assist enhance consciousness and readability on in any other case generic or unsubstantiated commentary on the problem.
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